Turning point in Europe

The effects of the war in Ukraine

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to political and economic upheavals whose dimensions can already be seen today. Just as the corona pandemic was taking us into a new normal, the paradigm shift in foreign, energy and security policy has now moved the focus once more.

We are facing a highly dynamic situation yet again, which is dispensing with previous certainties and creating new divides. On the one hand, innovation projects are being stopped while, on the other hand, the greater relevance of trends means that companies are quickly having to initiate new innovation measures.

Against this background, what can and must innovation managers prepare for? How can trends whose relevance has increased now be classified? The TRENDONE Trend Impact Wheel visualizes the direct and indirect consequences of the war in Ukraine and explores the potential futures after this turning point.

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TRENDONE Trend Impact Wheel Zeitenwende Keyvisual

Trend Impact Wheel Turning Point

There is now great uncertainty regarding the further development of the economy. In the light of rapidly rising prices for energy and raw materials, serious impairments to supply chains and the withdrawal of many companies from the Russian market, a complex situation has arisen in which it is difficult to separate cause and effect. The TRENDONE Trend Impact Wheel shows what influence Putin’s war will have on companies, which trends will grow in relevance, and what innovation teams must now focus on.

Methodology

Exploration

The “Futures Wheel” is an explorative method for identifying the direct and indirect consequences of an event. It was developed in 1971 by Jerome C. Glenn. Building on from that with the “Trend Impact Wheel”, TRENDONE highlights the direct effects of the war in Ukraine.

Analysis

Effects

The event whose effects are being analyzed is at the center of the wheel. The eight primary effects are clustered around the event in the middle. The cause and effect lines show how the effects combine. The secondary and tertiary effects follow in the two outer layers.

Relevance

Trend dynamics

All 56 effects have a correlation to the existing trends. The result is that these trends will be strengthened or weakened. The Trend Impact Wheel displays the most heavily affected mega-trends. 20 macro-trends are in the focus, and their high degree of dynamism ensures a strong level of relevance for companies.

TRENDONE Trend Impact Wheel Turning Point

Trend Impact Wheel Turning Point

With this bundled identification and representation of the direct and indirect consequences of the Russian invasion, the TRENDONE Trend Impact Wheel Turning Point makes the complex and highly dynamic change processes visible.

Download the Trend Impact Wheel Turning Point: PDF download (3.3 MB).
 

TRENDONE Trend Impact Wheel Turning Point Teaser Download
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The most relevant macro-trends

We also highlight the macro-trends from the TRENDONE Trenduniverse that are particularly impacted by the effects of the war in Ukraine and have grown in their cross-industry relevance. You can find detailed information on the trends, drivers, opportunities and risks in the Trend Manager, the tool for digital trend management.

TRENDONE Trend Impact Wheel Macro-Trend Resilient Supply Chain

Resilient Supply Chain

Supply chains consist of complex, globally connected systems and precisely coordinated processes that are susceptible to a variety of disruptions. Even small, local errors in a sub-system can bring global supply chains to a halt. One of the core tasks of supply chain management is therefore the construction of supply chains that are highly resistant to any known or unknown influences.

to the macro-trend
TRENDONE Trend Impact Wheel Macro-Trend Cybersecurity

Cybersecurity

Cyberattacks can have different origins. The range includes political, criminal and personal motives. The perpetrators often have financial interests at heart. They blackmail their victims with ransomware and demand a ransom, or steal from banks and companies. Any insufficiently secured system is a target.

to the macro-trend
TRENDONE Trend Impact Wheel Macro-Trend Energy Storage Systems

Energy Storage Systems

The switch to renewable energies requires a smart power grid. A core component is storing the energy. Wind and solar energy, for example, cannot always be produced as needed, as this is only possible when natural conditions allow it. Energy produced at night has to be stored for as long as it is needed.

to the macro-trend
TRENDONE Trend Impact Wheel Macro-Trend Flexible Production

Flexible Production

In a fast-moving world with dynamic changes to the demand structure, production systems have to be designed to be flexible and agile. The flexible production of goods not only responds to this dynamic setting, but can also react quickly to crises.

to the macro-trend
TRENDONE Trend Impact Wheel Macro-Trend Post Fossil Era

Post Fossil Era

In Europe, coal mining and converting coal into electricity are no longer profitable due to the price pressures from fuel markets, among other things. What’s more, climate scientists see a fossil-fuel phase-out by 2030 as essential for complying with the two-degree target.

to the macro-trend
TRENDONE Trend Impact Wheel Macro-Trend Neo Politics

Neo-Politics

Digitisation is breathing new life into politics. In particular, social networks are creating new platforms for political communication and serve as a tool for activism and political movements. Companies and institutions are also expected to express their political opinions in the digital space.

to the macro-trend

Interactive Impact Radar

Using the interactive TRENDONE Impact Radar, we highlight the effects of the war in Ukraine on selected macro-trends from our Trend Impact Wheel in relation to the mega-trends. Our method categorizes the trends into areas entitled Act | Prepare | Watch where they are clearly classified according to their greatest relevance.

Use the Trend Manager to define your company-specific Impact Radar:

  • Work collaboratively in your innovation team to identify and evaluate the macro-trends that are of most relevance to your area of activity.

  • By classifying the dynamic consequences of the turning point in Europe, you lay the basis for their visibility, communication and consideration in your innovation work.

  • Live-Demo:Live demo: Learn more about our tool for your systematic trend and innovation management free of charge and without any commitments.

Book the live demo now

Expert interview

Prof. Henning Vöpel, Director of the Center for European Policy (CEP)

TRENDONE: Will the change to the energy policy in Germany lead to even further development of regenerative energies or will the opposite happen by delaying the phase-out of fossil fuels and returning to nuclear power?

Prof. Henning Vöpel: We were on a clear path towards developing renewable energies. And we said we would stop using coal, leave nuclear energy behind and not use natural gas as a bridging technology for energy supplies. We had embarked upon a very strict yet consistent path in the energy transition towards climate neutrality. We must continue along this path.

I think it would be fatal if we now said we were politically required to organize a phase-out of the afore-mentioned phase-outs. To permit the use of coal again and allow nuclear reactors to operate for longer. Over the short-term, that is a way to increase the political pressure enormously, but we should then do that without causing any harm to ourselves. We need to make sure that the sanctions we impose have a high price for Russia and a low one for ourselves.

TRENDONE Zeitenwende Prof. Dr. Henning Vöpel, Direktor am Centrum für Europäische Politik (CEP)
Prof. Henning Vöpel, Director of the Center for European Policy (CEP)

“We all feel that we are not prepared for an age of uncertainty and complexity.”

TRENDONE: Green hydrogen is considered to be a powerful lever in the decarbonization process. Why is Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) now playing the leading role? Why don’t we switch directly to green hydrogen storage and generation?

Prof. Henning Vöpel: In order to reduce dependence in the short term. We have to admit that the hydrogen business is not quite ready yet. Therefore, we are trying to develop an LNG infrastructure first, or at the same time, which we do not even have in Europe, and certainly not in Germany. But LNG can be organized much more independently and in a decentralized manner. That is why I believe we should do so. But I still see great potential in the green hydrogen business because we will then be able to diversify our energy imports more widely. South America, for example, is making good progress in being able to produce hydrogen in dimensions that would help us to organize our energy transition.

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