Strategic Scenario Planning

Be prepared, no matter what the future holds

You know which trends are relevant. Now you need a plan for every possible future. Our Strategic Scenario Planning develops 3-4 alternative scenarios, tests your strategy against them, and provides concrete playbooks for each scenario.

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3-4 scenarios

with measurable indicators

Strategy Stress Test:

Which option is robust?

Concrete Playbooks

with measures and budgets

200+ companies are shaping the future with us

What if the future looks different?

Invest 500 million, but in which technology?

You're facing an irreversible crossroads: M&A, market entry, major infrastructure investment. But the underlying conditions are fundamentally unclear.

"We need to invest now, but no one can tell us which technology will be standard in 10 years."

Everyone in the leadership team believes in a different future

One sees deglobalization, the other hyperglobalization. One sees AI as an opportunity, the other as a threat.

"We've been going in circles for months because everyone assumes a different future."

The strategic plan only works in the best-case scenario

What if your core market collapses? What if a competitor technologically overtakes you? What if regulation makes your business model illegal?

"Our strategic plan assumed continuous growth. Then disruption hit, and we had no answer."

The Approach

Connecting external developments with your strategy

Strategic Scenario Planning connects what you cannot control with what you can control.

What you cannot controlTrends, mega-trends, wild cards, regulatory developments, technological breakthroughs, geopolitical shifts. These forces shape the future, whether you want them to or not.

What we do togetherWe explore how these external forces could create different futures. We develop scenarios that make these possibilities tangible. We open up opportunities for your strategy.

What you can controlYour strategy, your innovation priorities, your value proposition, your organization's mindset. These are levers you can pull if you know which future you are preparing for.

Scenarios you can actually use

You already have trend knowledge. Now the question is: What do you do if Scenario A occurs? And what if Scenario B?

3-4 coherent scenarios

Not 6 scenarios with 47 variables. A maximum of 4, so your team can keep them in mind. Each scenario as a clear narrative that everyone understands. Evidence-based from 60,000+ curated trends.

Strategy Stress Test

Your strategic options are tested against each scenario. Which strategy is robust across multiple futures? Which one wins big in one scenario but fails catastrophically in another?

Early Warning Indicators

Clear, measurable indicators per scenario. Not gut feeling, but monitoring logic: "If indicator X occurs, Scenario A becomes more likely, and we switch to Strategy Y."

Concrete Playbooks

What exactly do you do in Scenario A? In Scenario B? Not vague recommendations, but actions with responsibilities and budgets.

Project Example

Semperit: Portfolio Decision under Uncertainty

Industrial company

· 10 weeks

· 4 Workshops

A long-established materials manufacturer faced an irreversible portfolio decision. Uncertainty about technological and regulatory developments made a traditional market analysis inadequate. Two factions within the leadership team held fundamentally different assumptions about the future.

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Blick in eine moderne Fabrikhalle mit großen Kabeltrommeln und Maschinen zur Kabelherstellung.

The Process

7 search areas and mega-trends identified

1 baseline scenario developed as a reference point

4 alternative scenarios developed with the leadership team

Early Warning Indicators defined for each scenario

The OutcomeDecisiveness despite uncertainty, leadership team alignment, clear indicators for quarterly scenario reviews.

Together with TRENDONE, we established a structured foresight process at SEMPERIT. Alternative scenarios reveal the future of our industry and enable us to prepare for risks and uncertainties.

Hossein Kharazian

Corporate Development Manager SEMPERIT

Semperit

Five Phases for Strategic Capability

Our approach combines established foresight methods with strategic design thinking methodologies.

1. Scoping

Define the strategic question. What decision needs to be made? What time horizon is relevant? Who needs to be involved? Identify relevant search fields and mega-trends.

2. System Analysis

Identify influencing factors from 60,000+ curated developments. Which external forces could fundamentally change your market? Focus on the key factors with the highest impact and greatest uncertainty.

3. Future Matrix

Developing manifestations and projections for each key factor. How might these factors evolve in different futures? Systematic exploration of the space of possibilities.

4. Scenario Framework

Construction of a baseline scenario and 3-4 alternative scenarios in a workshop with your leadership team. Each scenario is a coherent narrative that everyone understands and supports.

5. Consequences

Deriving implications for your company. Testing your strategic options against the scenarios. Defining early warning indicators and concrete playbooks for each scenario.

What sets us apart

Why our scenarios are not science fiction

Evidence-based Scenarios are developed from 60,000+ curated trends. They are not invented, but derived from observable developments. Each scenario is underpinned by trend evidence.

ParticipatoryYour leadership team develops the scenarios collaboratively. We don't present ready-made futures. The result: Everyone shares the same "what-if" scenarios, which speeds up subsequent decisions.

Pragmatic, not academic
We optimize for usability, not complexity. A maximum of 4 scenarios. Clear indicators. Concrete playbooks. Quarterly review logic.

20 years of experience A combination of foresight methods and strategic design thinking. We know which scenario processes end up in a drawer and which are actually used.

When is Strategic Scenario Planning the right approach? Strategic Scenario Planning helps you test strategies against various futures. This approach is right for you if:

You are facing a major, irreversible decision

You want to test the robustness of your strategy across multiple futures

You have different assumptions about the future within your leadership team

Eine Gruppe von Menschen schaut auf einen großen Bildschirm, auf dem eine Präsentation mit Symbolen von Glühbirnen sichtbar ist.

When Future Research is a better fit:Do you first need clarity on relevant trends before developing scenarios? Future Research provides the evidence-based foundation for your scenario work.

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Frau hält Präsentation vor sitzendem Publikum mit rotem Sitzstuhl im modernen Konferenzraum, auf Leinwand steht 'Der vernetzte Mensch in 2125'.

Is Strategic Scenario Planning the right approach for you?

Not every strategic question requires scenarios. Sometimes trend research is sufficient, sometimes you need something different. Tell us about your challenge, and we'll honestly tell you if and how Scenario Planning can help.