Climate scientists see a phase-out of coal by 2030 as essential to keep global warming below two degrees compared to pre-industrial levels. The exnovation of fossil energy sources and the shift to sustainable business is still being held back in many places by subsidies and demands for compensation.

In Europe, mining coal and using it to generate electricity has become barely profitable, largely due to price pressure from fuel markets. At the same time, more and more innovations for sustainable business, alongside political decisions, are pointing toward a new era: the Post-Fossil Era.

The Post-Fossil Era relies on alternative energy sources such as wind power, solar panels, waste-to-energy plants, and the possibilities of bioengineering. The potential of alternative energy sources is far from exhausted. Tidal power plants and geothermal energy, for example, hold great promise.

We present the most important challenges, opportunities, and drivers for sustainable business that will accompany our economy and society on the path into an emissions-free era.

Current challenges for the transformation

Renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power are now usually more economical than gas and coal. But the socially responsible transformation of affected regions toward sustainable business is consuming a lot of time and money. The major challenge with alternative and renewable energy sources is always the storage of electricity, which—aside from pumped storage in hydropower plants—is not yet very efficient.

Chinese engineers are making a decisive contribution to the further development of resource-efficient propulsion and energy technologies

Globally, China's economic boom poses one of the greatest challenges. The Chinese economy has created enormous energy demand that is still largely met by coal-fired power. On the other hand, Chinese engineers are making a decisive contribution to the further development of resource-efficient propulsion and energy technologies, as well as the synthesis of biofuels using microorganisms.

E-mobility as an alternative to the combustion engine

A major source of hope for the Post-Fossil Era is e-mobility. Demand for battery-powered cars is currently rising sharply.

Companies in particular are ordering electric vehicles for professional use. The increasing electrification of corporate fleets is also an important feed-in source for the secondary market in used electric vehicles. That, in turn, would significantly accelerate the diffusion of electric drivetrains across wider parts of society.

The problem is that neither the expansion of production capacity nor the charging infrastructure is currently keeping pace with growing demand. In addition, many consumers are still kept from replacing their combustion engine with an EV by the fear of short battery lifespans.

Sustainable business through regenerative agriculture

Transforming agriculture also plays a crucial role on the path to the Post-Fossil Era. After all, the energy used to produce many fertilizers still comes from oil, gas, and coal.

This is becoming problematic given the rising demand for food and the decreasing ability of depleted soils to bind CO2. Yet regenerative agriculture increases the soil's CO2 storage capacity and, in combination with green biotechnology, could deliver consistently high yields.

Another important aspect is declining meat consumption in our society. By focusing on growing plant-based foods and restricting European meat exports, emissions across the food chain would be dramatically reduced.

Regenerative agriculture increases the soil's CO2 storage capacity and, in combination with green biotechnology, could deliver consistently high yields.

Other drivers for sustainable business

Other key drivers of the Post-Fossil Era and sustainable business include:

• Healthcare costs: Shutting down coal-fired power plants can dramatically improve air quality, which is a major driver of healthcare costs. When these costs decline, more money is available for research and development.
• Fridays for Future: A rapid coal phase-out is one of the core demands of the current environmental movement, which keeps producing new offshoots such as German Zero. Climate activism in the broadest sense is becoming a mass phenomenon.
• Incentives to shut down: The older lignite power blocks no longer even cover the operating costs of the open-pit mines. Higher CO2 prices and lower gas prices mean that coal-fired power is no longer competitive over the long term.

Post-Fossil Era and other trends at a glance in our Megatrend Map

Post-Fossil Era is one of 120 Macro Trends in our current Trend Universe, which is grouped into 17 Megatrends. With our free Megatrend Map, you get an overview of our entire Trend Universe, including explanations and our analysts' assessments of mainstream adoption.